Economic review

Brazilian market reduces growth forecast to 1.4 pct for 2018

2018-09-11 05:53:00 (Beijing Time)         English.news.cn

0

BRASILIA, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- Brazil's financial market reduced its GDP growth forecast from 1.44 to 1.4 percent for this year, the country's Central Bank (BC) said on Monday.

According to a Focus survey done by the BC among the country's main financial institutions, at the beginning of the year the forecast was a growth of 3 percent and four weeks ago the forecast was 1.49 percent.

Among the factors that led analysts to downgrade their forecast, is an uncertainty about the upcoming elections on Oct. 7.

The outlook for economic growth in 2019 remained at 2.5 percent.

In terms of inflation, the market outlook went from 4.18 to 4.14 percent for 2018 and from 4.05 to 4.1 percent for 2019.

That percentage remains within the goal set by the BC for this year which is 4.5 percent with a tolerance variable of 1.5 points in either direction.

The market maintained its forecast for the SELIC basic interest rate, saying it will remain at the current level of 6.5 percent and for the end of 2019 at an annual 8 percent.

In terms of the currency exchange rate, the projection remained steady at 3.8 reales per one U.S. dollar for the end of the year and at 3.7 reales at the end of 2019.

The forecast for the commercial trade balance (exports less imports) remained at 55 billion U.S. dollars for a positive result in 2018 and 47.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2019.

For 2019, financial market experts predict the trade surplus will go from 49.8 billion to 47.1 billion U.S. dollars.

The report's projection with regard to the entry of direct, foreign investment in Brazil remained steady at 67 billion U.S. dollars in 2018 and 74 billion U.S. dollars in 2019.